On Friday, August 21, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that a sizeable natural gas field had been found off the Turkish Black Sea coast. The discovery of some 320 billion cubic metres (bcm) reserve is being hailed as a game-changer. "It is only the beginning," presidential adviser and spokesman Ibrahim Kalin remarked. "We are very hopeful that it would lead to other fields in the same area."
Such an enthusiastic response is understandable. Today, Turkey consumes large amounts of natural gas. Rapid economic growth over the past decades has seen a demand surge from a meagre 0.5bcm in 1987 to 53.5bcm in 2017, most of which is imported.
Historically,
Turkey's biggest gas supplier has been Russia, accounting for more than half of
the volume entering the country, followed by Iran, Azerbaijan, Algeria, Qatar
and others. In the first half of this year, however, Russian and Iranian gas
imports slumped by more than 40 percent, with Azerbaijan emerging as the biggest
exporter to the Turkish market, supplying almost a quarter of all gas imports.
In the same period, imports of liquified natural gas (LNG) grew by almost 45
percent, with Algeria and Qatar claiming about half of those imports.
Indigenous
production promises to reduce dependence on external suppliers and possibly lay
the groundwork for exports to lucrative markets in the EU. Beyond reducing
Turkey's chronic trade deficit fuelled by a large oil and gas bill, Black Sea
hydrocarbons may boost its political leverage, too.
What
also matters, of course, is the timing of the discovery in the Tuna-1
zone, about 100 nautical miles north of the Turkish coast in the western
Black Sea. Erdogan's announcement comes at a time when Turkey is locked in a
dispute over maritime boundaries and access to offshore hydrocarbon
deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The
agreement signed with the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya for the
delimitation of the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) has led to pushback by
Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Israel, and lately, France. Tensions are rising after
Greek and Turkish ships collided earlier in August.
And
this week, the airforces of Greece and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are
holding their first-ever joint drill south of the island of Crete. It follows
earlier Turkish wargames. While both Ankara and Athens would prefer to avoid
dangerous escalation and eventually come back to the negotiating table, neither
wants to blink first.
But
should Erdogan choose to dial down pressure by freezing exploratory activities
in the disputed waters around Cyprus or off the Greek island of
Kastellorizo, the new discovery would provide the means to divert domestic
attention. Unlike the Eastern Mediterranean, territorial waters and EEZs
in the Black Sea are generally not contested (aside from Crimea, of course,
after the Russian annexation in 2014).
Right
now, the chances for such a shift are slim. Cross-party support for Turkey's
muscular posture vis-a-vis Greece and its allies runs strong. More assertive
diplomacy appears to be paying off, whether in Syria, Libya or in the Eastern
Mediterranean. Last but not least, Turkish policymakers do not see a linkage
between the two issues. But keeping all options on the table, including
de-escalation and diversion, would be a prudent choice for Ankara.
The
gas discovery is also seen in Turkey as a piece of positive news at a moment
when the Turkish economy is struggling. After a bounceback in 2019, it has
taken a huge hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF and World Bank
expect the gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink by 3.8-5 percent this year,
for the first time since 2009. The Turkish lira has lost a fifth of its value
vis-a-vis the dollar since January.
There
will be a modest recovery in 2021, but the golden days when the governing
Justice and Development Party (AKP) was winning support on the back of robust
growth and improvement of living standards and welfare provision are gone.
Black
Sea gas is not the silver bullet to rescue Turkey. Though authorities are
vowing that production will kick off as early as 2023, the centennial of the
Republic, tapping into offshore deposits is technically challenging and
costly. With hydrocarbon prices low, recouping investment might prove
difficult.
Demand
on the Turkish domestic market is in decline over the past two years and
indigenously sourced volumes will face competition from importers, including
cheap liquefied natural gas (LNG). The same applies to putative gas recovered
from the Eastern Mediterranean in case a settlement is reached. It might well
turn out to be too expensive to sell. In other words, there is no energy
bonanza just around the corner.
Still,
the Black Sea find does make a difference. In the coming five years, Turkey
will be renegotiating its long-term contracts with major suppliers. The
list includes deals signed with Gazprom for the so-called Western route,
currently served by the TurkStream pipeline, as well as for Blue Stream.
The
Turkish state-owned utility BOTAS will have extra leverage in extracting better
terms on issues such as the pricing formula or indeed the take-or-pay clause
obliging it, as it stands now, to absorb 80 percent of the contracted volumes.
Gazprom's market share has been contracting rapidly over the past two years.
Yet
Ankara will be driving a hard bargain with the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan
(SOCAR) one of whose contracts is expiring in 2021. Qatargas, on the other
hand, is likely to be afforded preferential treatment in upcoming negotiations,
courtesy of the close diplomatic and military alliance between Ankara and Doha.
In
sum, Turkey will gain flexibility and increase its say over external energy
relations. Domestic production of gas can recast strategic relations with
Russia. Diversifying energy supplies away from Gazprom does strengthen Turkey's
hand and allows it to compete against Russia where their interests diverge, but
it will not usher in a major turnaround.
Ankara
and Moscow still need each other on a host of issues, from Syria, to Libya, to
Black Sea security. Moving closer to its goal to achieve energy
independence, Turkey will continue to balance between Russia and the West in
pursuit of status and influence.
PALESTINA
Fears are mounting for the safety of people with health issues as
already-strained hospitals are largely without power and the Palestinian
territory faces a coronavirus outbreak.
Two million residents are surviving on only four hours of electricity a day
after Israel cut off the fuel supply, leading to the shut down of Gaza's sole
power plant last week.
Israel made the move after the continuous launch of incendiary balloons from
the coastal enclave towards Israeli communities surrounding the Gaza Strip by a
group of civilian activists demanding the easing of the crippling 13-year
blockade.
"In addition to the implications of COVID-19 and precautionary measures that decreased our fish supply during the past three months, now Israel has shut down the sea. Two enemies against us - that is too much," said a fisherman.
Palestinian politician Jamal al-Khudari, chairman of the National Committee
to Confront the Siege against Gaza, said the reopening of the commercial
crossing was imperative with Gaza now facing the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The
coronavirus pandemic enters Gaza in the most difficult humanitarian, health and
environmental conditions, in light of the tightening of the occupation's
siege," he said in a statement.
Qatari
envoy to Gaza, Mohammed al-Emadi, was in the enclave on Wednesday as part of
mediation efforts to alleviate tension between Israel and Hamas and fears of
another all-out-Israeli massacre of the Palestinians.
The problem for Israel, the United States and their accomplices, is that Palestinians are not going anywhere. This is the gist of a hundred years of dispossession and more than eight decades of Palestinian struggle against Zionist colonialism. The proof? The story of Gaza’s youngsters.
As
Israel has been bombing Gaza for over two weeks, I feel like bringing to you a
piece of information of Gaza’s Martyrized youth and their resilience to live
despite Israel’s project of ethnic cleansing of Palestine.
For
Abdulrahman al-Shantti, becoming an internet sensation feels "really
good" because it allows him to spread his message of what growing up in
the Gaza Strip is like.
"I
want to tell the outside world how the Palestinians live in Gaza and how we as
children are supposed to live like normal people but don't," says Abdul.
The
11-year-old rapper shot to fame earlier this month when one of his cover songs
on his Instagram page went viral and, at the time of writing, has earned him
more than 92,000 followers.
The
video, which features a song by Palestinian rapper Waheeb Nasan, shows
Abdulrahman standing in front of his classmates, effortlessly rapping in
American-accented English without missing a beat.
"First
of all, this is our country, let me tell you how it goes," he raps.
"We want peace and we want love/people pray and teach who don't."
The
song, which itself is a cover version of Wiz Khalifa's See You Again, netted
him praise from famous music artists around the world, from US artist DJ Khaled
to Canadian signer Masari to the UK's Akala and Lowkey.
Abdulrahman,
who goes by the stage name MCA, first took a liking to hip-hop music when he
was nine years old.
"I
started rapping for fun at first," he explained. "I memorised
Eminem's song I'm Not Afraid and that's when I found out I'm good at rapping.
Ever since then I started to write my own original songs and memorised covers
for famous rappers."
When
asked about his favourite artists, he gushed with enthusiasm.
"Oh man, I have so many!" he said.
"Eminem, Tupac, Mike Shinoda. I was searching for rap songs on YouTube and
came across Changes by Tupac and I really liked it. So I checked out more songs
from him and listened to Dear Mama, The Rose and really liked his style."
His father Saleh says Abdulrahman, who is also a big
NBA fan, is completely self-taught.
"He
learned everything from the internet on the phone," he said. "He was
born and raised in Gaza, and has never attended a language institute. He keeps
a schedule where he practices new songs, day and night.
"All
of this talent is from his determination and hard work and practice," he
added.
Saudi
hip-hop guru and radio host Ahmad Dennaoui - better known as Big Hass - came
across Abdulrahman's Instagram page and shared it on his social media channels.
"I actually did a live Instagram interview with
Abdul before he went viral. It's really amazing to see the love MCA has
received so far and it's crazy to believe that just 10 days ago he had 800
followers and now he's crossed the 90K number."
Saleh, who takes videos of his son rapping with his
mobile phone, said he is proud of Abdulrahman, whose original lyrics talk about
experiencing three Israeli offensives during his 11 years on Earth. "His own songs talk
about where he lives and the conditions of the Gaza Strip from his own
perspective," he said. "Through his videos, he wants to show the
world places in Gaza."
In
one of his original songs, Abdelrahman raps about life in Gaza, which he has
only known under a blockade that is older than he is. "Since the first day
of my life I have already seen three wars/And it won't take very long for me to
see another one," he raps. "On the beach of Gaza - sands, fresh air
and sea/It's the only opportunity for the people to feel free."
Big
Hass said it was not surprising at all that such a prodigious talent chose
hip-hop as a medium to convey his message.
"I
find it refreshing that MCA found hip-hop to express his ideas and
talent," he said. "Hip-hop has always been the voice of the
people."
The
genre has spread across the Arab world, he continued, starting from the North
African countries before making its way to the Levant and the Gulf states.
"I
am loving the diversity of the Arab rappers," he said. "I've been
fortunate to cover, support, and document Arabic hip-hop since 2007 and it's
been amazing to watch it grow."
Palestinian
hip-hop groups - such as DAM and the now-defunct Ramallah Underground - paved
the way for other artists to flourish or have short-lived rap careers.
From
Gaza, rappers such as the duo Revolution Makers - all use Arabic in their
lyrics, but Abdulrahman wants to focus on rapping in English for now as it
offers a wider audience and more opportunities, according to his father.
"That
is not to say that he will not rap in Arabic, just maybe in the future when he
has mastered English," Saleh added.
For
his cover songs, which feature Waheed Nasan, Linkin Park, Kris Kross, Mike
Shinoda's Fort Minor, Tupac and Eminem, Abdulrahman chooses locations in Gaza
City that he believes fit the song.
He
said he wants to continue rapping and is working on an album.
"I have maybe five songs so far," he said. "In the future, I
want to go to the United States and meet my musical influences and visit
studios. I also want to learn how to be a better songwriter."
Abdul and Palestinian youngsters resist just by living. Their will to survive, to exist, to live, shall triumph over Israeli evil.
INTERACTIVE: Palestinian Remix
Palestinian Center
for Human Rights
International Solidarity
Movement – Nonviolence. Justice. Freedom
Defense for
Children
Breaking the Silence
AOS
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