MARIÂNGELA BERQUÓ enfoca a Geopolítica: Dirty deal between USA-Israel-UAE: Shame on You, Arab Emirates!

After years of taking steps towards informal normalisation, but falling short of breaking from the long-standing Arab position and officially signing a peace deal with Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) finally announced its decision to establish full diplomatic relations with the country on Thursday.

The move was long in the making. In the last few years, the Emiratis have hosted Israeli ministers and athletes, participated in maritime security conferences alongside Israeli officials, supported technological cooperation agreements between Emirati and Israeli companies, and even invited Israel to the Dubai Expo.

These and other ventures made Abu Dhabi's intention to normalise its relations with Israel clear. What stood in the way of a deal was the Israeli government's intention to annex some 30 percent of the occupied West Bank, including the Jordan Valley, which would have made official rapprochement with Israel too politically costly for the Emirati leadership.

But on June 12, the UAE's ambassador to the United States, Yousef al-Otaiba, offered Israel a face-saving trade-off. In an op-ed published in Israel's largest Hebrew language daily Yedioth Ahronoth, al-Otaiba warned Israeli leaders against annexation, saying that such a move would "reverse all of the Israeli aspirations for improved security, economic and cultural ties with the Arab world and the United Arab Emirates". In essence, the Emirati ambassador announced to the world that the UAE was ready to sign a peace deal with Israel, if it drops its annexation plan, even for a short while.

The Israeli government clearly got the message, as it announced on Thursday that it agreed to suspend "declaring sovereignty" over the occupied West Bank as part of its normalisation deal with the UAE.

The agreement rewards US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for their protracted assault on the Palestinians over the past four years. Once signed, and implemented, it is likely to embolden Netanyahu's coalition, deepen Israel's occupation and strengthen Israel's alliance with Arab autocrats.

But, most of Western media outlets welcomed the "peace agreement" as a "historic" breakthrough.

And UAE leaders have justified their rapprochement with Israel under the pretext of halting Israeli annexation of Arab territories, helping the Palestinians achieve their goals of independence, and promoting peace in the Middle East.

The UAE may hope to take credit for "stopping further annexation of Palestinian territories", but Netanyahu's plans to illegally annex a third of the occupied West Bank was derailed long before the de facto leader of the UAE, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed, stepped into the fray.

Overwhelming Arab and international opposition has discouraged the Trump administration from giving Netanyahu the greenlight to annex, when even Netanyahu's own coalition partner, Binyamin Gantz, is opposed to it.

In fact, the Emiratis have merely provided Trump and Netanyahu with a ladder to climb down their reckless proposal.

Moreover, annexation, which is halted only temporarily, is merely a byproduct of the real problem; Israel's occupation and illegal settlements, which are likely to worsen thanks to the UAE's appeasement.

Still, the UAE insists that it is driven by solidarity with the Palestinian people and that it will continue to "forcefully advocate for … their dignity, their rights and their own sovereign state"

This is "chutzpah"/shame, Emirati style.

The Emiratis have long kept the Palestinians in the dark about their covert security cooperation with Israel. They have not consulted or coordinated with the Palestinian leadership when normalising their relations with Israel, or announcing their intent to sign a peace agreement. In fact, they've long turned their backs on the Palestinian plight, and continue to undermine Palestinian unity by hosting and supporting a renegade "Palestinian leader", suspected with being involved in Yasser Arafat’s «death», Mohammad Dahlan.

In short, Palestine is not much of a serious consideration for the UAE. If anything the timing of the announcement was meant to help Trump and Netanyahu, who are struggling politically and legally.

So it is no surprise that the Palestinians of all walks of society and polity have unequivocally denounced the Emirati move, calling it "betrayal", "aggression", and a sell out of the Palestinian struggle for freedom.

After all, how on earth could appeasement of a regime that occupies and oppresses Palestine be good for the Palestinians?

If anything, Israel will exploit the UAE and potentially other Arab attempts at rapprochement in order to expand its annexation and pressure the Palestinian people into submission.

The UAE is using Israel's decision to put its annexation plans on hold to justify its move and shield itself from accusations that it betrayed the Palestinians by establishing relations with Israel to please the US and strengthen its hand against its regional rivals. However, considering how Netanyahu has previously reneged on agreements with the Palestinians and Arab leaders, this so-called suspension is not worth the paper it is written on.

The Emiratis try to justify their move on precedence; if Egypt and Jordan can have normal relations with Israel, why not the UAE?

The comparison is preposterous.

Egypt fought four major wars against Israel, and signed to a peace deal only after Israel agreed to withdraw from all Egyptian lands. Jordan has also fought three wars against Israel, and signed its peace agreement only after the Palestinians signed theirs.

But since then Israel has walked away from its commitments to the Arabs, as it always does, and deepened its occupation of Palestine.

The UAE, on the other hand, does not share borders with, and has never fought a war against, Israel. It has not been threatened or occupied by Israeli forces either. So why is Abu Dhabi rushing to appease Israel at a time when Netanyahu is tightening his grip on Palestine and rejecting the "Two States" solution?

UAE leaders claim the Arabs could achieve more through diplomacy and peace than posturing and war.

But this is a false dichotomy.

Needless to say, peace is preferable to war.

However, false peace that's based on cynical strategic calculus and ignores justice and human rights is destined to lead to more not less conflict.

Throughout its history, Israel consistently used diplomatic openings from Arab states to deepen its occupation, and made concessions only under pressure. Not only has the UAE received nothing in return for its "historic rapprochement", Israel will gain unfettered access to one of the richest Arab markets.

The Emirati regime is the most pro-war in the region, rivalled only by Israel. Its destructive war in Yemen, its proxy war in Libya, its destabilising policies towards Tunisia, Turkey and Qatar, and its support for regional dictators like Egypt's Abdel Fattah el-Sisi all testify to Abu Dhabi's disregard for peace and drive for war.

To say Abu Dhabi punches above its weight when it comes to stoking the flames of conflict in the Middle East is an understatement. The divisive, destabilising and anti-democratic policies it pursues in conjunction with Saudi Arabia are paralysing the region and bankrupting its states.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia's opposition to the Arab Spring and to any form of democracy in the region, and their deep hostility towards all popular, progressive, liberal or Islamist movements, put them at the helm of counter revolutionary forces throughout the Middle East and North Africa. They may not be winning anywhere, but they are also ensuring that everybody else loses in the process.

In sum, the UAE is "bandwagoning" with Israel and the United States, in the hope of establishing a trilateral US-Israeli-Arab strategic alliance to contain Turkey's influence and tame or destroy the Iranian regime.

In other words, the UAE is seeking a cynical alliance, not benevolent peace, with Israel.

If Trump is reelected President, this is sure to produce, not regional peace and prosperity, but more instability and conflict throughout the region.

Those celebrating the "historical peace agreement" may soon discover it is nothing more than a drive towards another regional conflict or worse, war.

Real peace will come only after Israel agrees to withdraw from all Palestinian land, gives up the Zionist hegemonic ambitions and its nuclear weapons, and allows for full Palestinian freedom and self-determination in the Palestinian homeland, paving the way for normalisation of relations with much if not all of the Arab world.

Now that's what you call a historic breakthrough worth celebrating.

They take the Palestinians, the international community and us, journalists, for fouls. To be sure, with Israel’s record of deceit, theft and outlaw actions, there is a huge possibility that once diplomatic relations are formally established between the two countries, Netanyahu will renege on the suspension promise. After all, besides being himself the master of deception, he needs the support of Israeli illegal settlers to remain in power, and they want the colonisation of the West Bank to continue unabated.

Moreover, Netanyahu's American friends who brokered the deal - Trump's Middle East point man Jared Kushner, US ambassador to Israel David Friedman, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo among others - expect nothing less. After all, they are defenders of settlements and believers in a literal interpretation of scriptures giving Israel the right to control the area in perpetuity.

In fact, the annexation Netanyahu agreed to officially "suspend" has already taken place illegaly. Some 600,000 Israeli-Zionist settlers live in settlements, all illegal under international law, strewn across that same 30 percent of the occupied West Bank, and no agreement with the Palestinians, the UAE or any other Arab state can dislodge them.

Today, settlers are attacking Palestinians, burning their crops and undermining their livelihoods regularly, unimpeded by the Israeli army, even in areas supposedly reserved in the Oslo Accords for a rump Palestinian state. A promise to suspend an annexation that has already taken place in practice serves no purpose other than allowing the UAE to save face, and Netanyahu to secure a peace deal that can help save his political future.

Netanyahu is facing protests for failing to efficiently respond to the coronavirus pandemic and the downturn in the Israeli economy. A corruption investigation, slated to take place early next year, is also hanging over his head like the sword of Damocles. With this supposed diplomatic victory, he could very well announce a new round of parliamentary elections that could net him more support in the Knesset, which would give him significant leverage in his upcoming legal and political battles.

Just like Netanyahu, Trump is also relying on the UAE-Israel normalisation deal to turn his political fortunes around. It was obvious from his enthusiastic Oval Office announcement about the agreement that he thinks the Emirati move will help him secure the support of pro-Israel sectors of the American electorate in the upcoming presidential election. Indeed, declaring a foreign policy victory - especially one that pleases Israel - may help Trump at a time when he is trailing far behind the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in almost every election poll.

But any extra support the deal provides for Trump will likely be inconsequential in determining the result of the election, given his significant failures on the domestic front. Foreign policy has never been a major concern for the American electorate, even in good times. Today, what most Americans care about is the coronavirus pandemic and its detrimental effects on the economy, high unemployment, and Trump's clear assault on American democracy and the integrity of elections. Scoring a goal for Israel in its relations with the Arab world is unlikely to be seen by voters as a deciding factor in their choice for president.

In the coming days, following further negotiations led by the US, Thursday's announcement will undoubtedly result in the much-anticipated establishment of diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel. As the UAE becomes the third Arab country - after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994 - to officially make peace with Israel, it is not unreasonable to expect other Gulf countries to follow suit. But there should also be no doubt that in the end, it will all be for naught.

These normalisation efforts may provide some short-term political relief for Netanyahu, Trump and Gulf leaders who need the support of Israel and the US to subdue their regional rivals. Nevertheless, they will not provide any real normalisation for Israel.

Egypt and Jordan's peace deals with Israel failed to garner popular support in many decades, despite relentless efforts by these governments to convince the masses they rule over to accept and normalise Israel's existence in the region.

There is no doubt that full normalisation with Israel cannot be accomplished until it agrees to end its occupation of Palestine and oppression of the Palestinian people.

Any deal between Arab leaders and Israel will not be accepted by the peoples of the region until Israel redresses the legitimate national and human rights of the Palestinians. What UAE leaders have just done is to simply betray these goals without gaining anything in return.