Mostrando postagens com marcador petróleo. Mostrar todas as postagens
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domingo, 27 de outubro de 2019

Reality check on American chaotic Middle East police


US President Donald Trump has reassured supporters that he is “bringing soldiers home” from the “endless” war in Syria. But that is simply not the case.
While Trump has ordered a partial withdrawal of the approximately 1,000 American troops on Syrian territory — who have been enforcing an illegal military occupation under international law — US officials and the president himself have admitted that some will be staying. And they will remain on Syrian soil not to ensure to safety of any group of people, but rather to maintain control over oil and gas fields.
The US military has already killed hundreds of Syrians, and possibly even some Russians, precisely in order to hold on to these Syrian fossil fuel reserves.
Washington’s obsession with toppling the Syrian government refuses to die. The United States remains committed to preventing Damascus from retaking its own oil, as well as its wheat-producing breadbasket region, in order to starve the government of revenue and prevent it from funding reconstruction efforts.

There is something profoundly deceitful in the way the Democratic Party and the corporate media are framing Donald Trump’s decision to pull troops out of Syria and to carry on with so many sins that, actually, Obama has committed.
One does not need to defend Trump’s actions or ignore the dangers posed to the Kurds, at least in the short term, by the departure of US forces from northern Syria to understand that the coverage is being crafted in such a way as to entirely overlook the bigger picture.
The problem is neatly illustrated in this line from a report by the Guardian newspaper of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s meeting this week with Trump, who is described as having had a “meltdown”. Explaining why she and other senior Democrats stormed out, the paper writes that “it became clear the president had no plan to deal with a potential revival of Isis in the Middle East”.
Hang on a minute! Let’s pull back a little, and not pretend – as the media and Democratic party leadership wish us to – that the last 20 years did not actually happen. Many of us lived through those events. Our memories are not so short.
Islamic State, or Isis, or Daesh, didn’t emerge out of nowhere. It was entirely a creation of two decades of US interference in the Middle East. And I’m not even referring to the mountains of evidence that US officials backed their Saudi allies in directly funding and arming Isis – just as their predecessors in Washington, in their enthusiasm to oust the Soviets from the region, assisted the jihadists who went on to become al-Qaeda.
No, I’m talking about the fact that in destroying three key Arab states – Iraq, Libya and Syria – that refused to submit to the joint regional hegemony of Saudi Arabia and Israel, Washington’s local client states, the US created a giant void of governance at the heart of the Middle East. They knew that that void would be filled soon enough by religious extremists like Islamic State – and they didn’t care.
Overthrow, not regime change
You don’t have to be a Saddam Hussein, Muammar Gaddafi or Bashar Assad apologist to accept this point. You don’t even have to be concerned that these so-called “humanitarian” wars violated each state’s integrity and sovereignty, and are therefore defined in international law as “the supreme war crime”.
The bigger picture – the one no one appears to want us thinking about – is that the US intentionally sought to destroy these states with no obvious plan for the day after. As Jonathan Cook well explained in his book Israel and the Clash of Civilisations, these haven’t so much been regime-change wars as nation-state dismantling operations – what I have termed overthrow wars.
The logic was a horrifying hybrid of two schools of thought that meshed neatly in the psychopathic foreign policy goals embodied in the ideology of neoconservatism – the so-called “Washington consensus” since 9/11.
The first was Israel’s long-standing approach to the Palestinians. By constantly devastating any emerging Palestinian institution or social structures, Israel produced a divide-and-rule model on steriods, creating a leaderless, ravaged, enfeebled society that sucked out all the local population’s energy. That strategy proved very appealing to the neoconservatives, who saw it as one they could export to non-compliant states in the region.
The second was the Chicago school’s Shock Doctrine (must read Naomi Klein's book), as explained in Naomi Klein’s book of that name. The chaotic campaign of destruction, the psychological trauma and the sense of dislocation created by these overthrow wars were supposed to engender a far more malleable population that would be ripe for a US-controlled “colour revolution”.
The recalcitrant states would be made an example of, broken apart, asset-stripped of their resources and eventually remade as new dependent markets for US goods. That was what George W Bush, Dick Cheney and Halliburton really meant when they talked about building a New Middle East and exporting democracy.
Even judged by the vile aims of its proponents, the Shock Doctrine has been a half-century story of dismal economic failure everywhere it has been attempted – from Pinochet’s Chile to Yeltsin’s Russia. But let us not credit the architects of this policy with any kind of acumen for learning from past errors. As Bush’s senior adviser Karl Rove explained to a journalist whom he rebuked for being part of the “reality-based community”: “We’re an empire now and, when we act, we create our own reality.”
The birth of Islamic State
The barely veiled aim of the attacks on Iraq, Libya and Syria was to destroy the institutions and structures that held these societies together, however imperfectly. Though no one likes to mention it nowadays, these states – deeply authoritarian though they were – were also secular, and had well-developed welfare states that ensured high rates of literacy and some of the region’s finest public health services.
One can legitimately argue about the initial causes of the uprising against Assad that erupted in Syria in 2011. Did it start as a popular struggle for liberation from the Assad government’s authoritarianism? Or was it a sectarian insurgency by those who wished to replace Shia minority rule with Sunni majority rule? Or was it driven by something else: as a largely economic protest by an under-class suffering from food shortages as climate change led to repeated crop failures? Or are all these factors relevant to some degree?
Given how closed a society Syria was and is, and how difficult it therefore is to weigh the evidence in ways that are likely to prove convincing to those not already persuaded, let us set that issue aside too. Anyway, it is irrelevant to the bigger picture that must be addressed.
The indisputable fact is that Washington and its Gulf allies wished to exploit this initial unrest as an opportunity to create a void in Syria – just as they had earlier done in Iraq, where there were no uprisings, nor even the WMDs the US promised would be found and that served as the pretext for Bush’s campaign of Shock and Awe.
The limited uprisings in Syria quickly turned into a much larger and far more vicious war because the Gulf states, with US backing, flooded the country with proxy fighters and arms in an effort to overthrow Assad and thereby weaken Iranian and Shia influence in the region. The events in Syria and earlier in Iraq gradually transformed the Sunni religious extremists of al-Qaeda into the even more barbaric, more nihilistic extremists of Islamic State.
A dark US vanity project
After Rove and Cheney had had their fill playing around with reality, nature got on with honouring the maxim that it always abhors a vacuum. Islamic State filled the vacuum Washington’s policy had engineered.
The clue, after all, was in the name. With the US and Gulf states using oil money to wage a proxy war against Assad, Isis saw its chance to establish a state inspired by a variety of Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabist dogma. Isis needed territory for their planned state, and the Saudis and US obliged by destroying Syria.
This barbarian army, one that murdered other religious groups as infidels and killed fellow Sunnis who refused to bow before their absolute rule, became the west’s chief allies in Syria. Directly and covertly, we gave them money and weapons to begin building their state on parts of Syria.
Again, let us ignore the fact that the US, in helping to destroy a sovereign nation, committed the supreme war crime, one that in a rightly ordered world would ensure every senior Washington official faces their own Nuremberg Trial. Let us ignore too for the moment that the US, consciously through its actions, brought to life a monster that sowed death and destruction everywhere it went.
The fact is that at the moment Assad called in Russia to help him survive, the battle the US and the Gulf states were waging through Islamic State and other proxies was lost. It was only a matter of time before Assad would reassert his rule.
From that point onwards, every single person who was killed and every single Syrian made homeless – and there were hundreds of thousands of them – suffered their terrible fate for no possible gain in US policy goals. A vastly destructive overthrow war became instead something darker still: a neoconservative vanity project that ravaged countless Syrian lives.
A giant red herring
Trump now appears to be ending part of that policy. He may be doing so for the wrong reasons. But very belatedly – and possibly only temporarily – he is seeking to close a small chapter in a horrifying story of western-sponsored barbarism in the Middle East, one intimately tied to Islamic State.
What of the supposed concerns of Pelosi and the Democratic Party under whose watch the barbarism in Syria took place. They should have no credibility on the matter to begin with.
But their claims that Trump has “no plan to deal with a potential revival of Isis in the Middle East” is a giant red herring they are viciously slapping us in the face with in the hope the spray of seawater blinds us.
First, Washington sowed the seeds of Islamic State by engineering a vacuum in Syria that Isis – or something very like it – was inevitably going to fill. Then, it allowed those seeds to flourish by assisting its Gulf allies in showering fighters in Syria with money and arms that came with only one string attached – a commitment to Sunni jihadist ideology inspired by Saudi Wahhabism.
Isis was made in Washington as much as it was in Riyadh. For that reason, the only certain strategy for preventing the revival of Islamic State is preventing the US and the Gulf states from interfering in Syria again.
With the Syrian army in charge of Syrian territory, there will be no vacuum for Isis to fill. The jihadists’ state-building project is now unrealisable, at least in Syria. Islamic State will continue to wither, as it would have done years before if the US and its Gulf allies had not fuelled it in a proxy war they knew could not be won.
Doomed Great Game
The same lesson can be drawn by looking at the experience of the Syrian Kurds. The Rojava fiefdom they managed to carve out in northern Syria during the war survived till now only because of continuing US military support. With a US departure, and the Kurds too weak to maintain their improvised statelet, a vacuum was again created that this time has risked sucking in the Turkish army, which fears a base for Kurdish nationalism on its doorstep.
The Syrian Kurds’ predicament is simple: face a takeover by Turkey or seek Assad’s protection to foil Turkish ambitions. The best hope for the Kurds looks to be the Syrian army’s return, filling the vacuum and regaining a chance of long-term stability.
That could have been the case for all of Syria many tens of thousands of deaths ago. Whatever the corporate media suggest, those deaths were lost not in a failed heroic battle for freedom, which, even if it was an early aspiration for some fighters, quickly became a goal that was impossible for them to realise. No, those deaths were entirely pointless. They were sacrificed by a western military-industrial complex in a US-Saudi Great Game that dragged on for many years after everyone knew it was doomed.
Nancy Pelosi’s purported worries about Isis reviving because of Trump’s Syria withdrawal are simply crocodile fears. If she is really so worried about Islamic State, then why did she and other senior Democrats stand silently by as the US under Barack Obama spent years spawning, cultivating and financing Isis to destroy Syria, a state that was best placed to serve as a bulwark against the head-chopping extremists?
Pelosi and the Democratic leadership’s bad faith – and that of the corporate media – are revealed in their ongoing efforts to silence and smear Tulsi Gabbard, the party’s only candidate for the presidential nomination who has pointed out the harsh political realities in Syria, and tried to expose their years of lies.
Pelosi and most of the Democratic leadership don’t care about Syria, or its population’s welfare. They don’t care about Assad, or Isis. They care only about the maintenance and expansion of American power – and the personal wealth and influence it continues to bestow on them.

"In days gone by, I used to compare the Trump presidency with the Arab dictatorships. He took preposterous pleasure in the company of Egypt’s Sisi (60,000 political prisoners) and his inane ramblings had much in common with those of Muammar Gaddafi, who also “authored” a book he never wrote but whom Trump never met (albeit that Tony Blair and Gaddafi kissed each other on the cheek). But over the past week, I’ve begun to realise that the crackpot in the White House has much more in common with ancient Rome.
My former classics professor once told me – when I melodramatically called him on my mobile phone from the original Roman forum during the US occupation of Iraq under George W Bush – that the Romans were a “manic” people, but that they would have been pretty unimpressed with the American handling of the Iraqi campaign.
He was right. But I am now convinced that there is something distinctly “manic” about the Trump presidency. The hatred, the threats, the fury, have much in common with both the Roman republic (Rome’s version of popular “democracy”) and the Roman empire, when quite a number of emperors showed themselves to be just as insane as Trump.
Cato the Censor, a dangerous man, would end each of his speeches in Rome with the words Carthago delenda est. “Carthage must be destroyed”. Is this not exactly the language of Trump? Did he not say that he could have Afghanistan “wiped off the face of the earth”, that he could “totally destroy” North Korea, that Iran “will be destroyed” if it attacks the US?
Cato got what he wanted. Carthage was indeed razed, its people sold into slavery, although its lands were not in fact sown with salt as English historians would later claim. So far, Trump has been more Cicero than Cato, Pompeo more Pliny than Pompey. So far.
But the American retreat from Syria, its army’s greatest disgrace only ghosted over by its new role as Saudi Arabia’s mercenaries – for the new US military arrival in the kingdom is to be paid for by the regime which butchered Jamal Khashoggi – has dark echoes in antiquity.
Contrary to the Hollywood version of history, the Roman empire did not collapse in a couple of days. The Goths, Ostrogoths and Visigoths did not just gobble up Italy over a weekend. The fall of the empire came slowly, over years, in small incremental pieces: legions forgotten, tribal allies unpaid – and then betrayed.
One of Rome’s most troublesome provinces was Cilicia. It was always changing hands. Its people allied themselves to Rome – and were then abandoned when legions left or taxes ran out. Cilicia, by extraordinary mischance, lay almost exactly along the western border of what is today the Turkish-Syrian (Kurdish) frontier.
There are still a few Roman ruins in that ancient province to remind its present-day armies of what – they should have surely realised – would be their fate. I doubt if there is a single US soldier in Syria – who must, of course, negotiate their own way out of that equally ancient country – who knows of this. Institutional memory, let alone historical memory, has long ago been erased by the internet.
The Roman empire fell in bits. The senators, living in the political wreckage of the old Roman republic, knew that something was going wrong. The people understood their demise only in stages. The great Roman roads went unrepaired. The legions could not move so fast (even if they were still loyal to Rome). Then the imperial mail service from north Africa was impaired, even halted. The wheat for bread – often from what is today the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon – failed to arrive in Rome.
Amid popular unrest in Rome, where rival leaders could and did physically threaten each other, these matters often went unnoticed. Impeachment, alas, was not an option in the ancient world.
But the sword (or poison) could do its work. Political enemies would be accused of treachery. “Crucify them!” But is that not what Trump says of the American press, the Democrats or anyone who dares to confront him with his abominable lies and his assaults on American democracy?
No, I am not suggesting that the American empire will leave us quite like this. But last week’s deplorable abandonment of the Kurds, Trump’s wickedness in allowing the Turks – and their wretched “Arab” allies – to slaughter their way into northern Syria, will have the same effect as it did in antiquity. If you can no longer trust Rome, to which other empire do you turn?
Well, Putin’s, of course. Tyrant he may be – but at least he’s sane. And his legions stayed out of the war in Syria and saved the Assad regime. They cleared the highways of ISIS mines – they restored the roads, sometimes (incredibly) what were once Roman roads – and they learned Arabic. Perhaps, indeed, Putin now plays the role of the later Roman empire of the east, the Christian one which survived in Constantinople/Byzantium/Istanbul for hundreds more years after the fall of Rome itself. All the Middle East is now his empire, every capital welcoming the emperor: Tehran, Cairo, Ankara, Damascus, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi.
More than 20 years ago, I was in Washington, seeking to find the missile-maker who manufactured the rocket which Israel fired into a civilian ambulance in southern Lebanon, killing all inside. And I was much struck at how Roman Washington looked. Its great palaces of state (save for the State Department itself, of course) were self-consciously modelled on Roman architecture.
Washington was not built as the capital of a physical empire – more a philosophical one, I suspect, in my kinder moments – but it looks (like Vienna, Berlin, Paris, London) as if the early Americans of the independence era realised it might one day be the capital of the most powerful nation on earth. Well, it was.
But Trump has changed all that. To the despair of his few friends (of the non-”manic” kind) and the delight of his enemies, he has laid America low. The Syrians, whose history goes back far longer than America’s, have played their old political policy again: wait. And wait. And wait. And then drive into Manbij the moment the Americans leave. That’s what Rome’s enemies did when the empire’s frontiers crumbled in Germania and then in Gaul and then in the Balkans – of all places – and then in Palmyra and in what is today Syria.
As for Washington’s noble architecture, it now takes its place alongside the old capital of the Austro-Hungarian empire, where the fine Viennese buildings of state seem shamed by their majesty. The powerful and historical walls to study today are those of the Kremlin."
Robert Fisk writes for the Independent, where this column originally appeared. 

LEBANON
I hoped the days when I kicked burning tyres off the roads of Beirut had ended. 
They were hot. Just to look at the flames make eyes hurt. That’s what burning tyres are supposed to do, of course. 
For the most part, the men lighting these specific fires said they belonged to the Amal Movement, the Shia group controlled by Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament. 
Some were very poor, and looked it, and it is hard to blame them for their actions. Lebanon has never been a very rich nation – save for their Sunni merchants and Christian bankers – and these were the people who did not have enough to eat. For days, they had been protesting their fate. The Lebanese pound had fallen, the price of food had rocketed – all true, I promise you – and they protested.
Beyond Beirut's riots, all this week, the mountains of Lebanon have burnt. Their great glory of pine trees and wonderful mountainsides have blossomed with flames. The government’s three anti-fire helicopters lay rotting at Beirut international airport – the government did not maintain them – and it needed Geece, Cyprus and Jordan to send its aircraft to quench the burning hills. My own apartment on the Beirut seafront stank of smoke. On Wednesday night, God visited Lebanon – he does go to the Middle East occasionally – and drenched the country in rain and tempest. On Thursday morning, the fancy buildings by the sea side were covered in sand and ash.
But there is something far more serious going on in Lebanon. The physical rage of Lebanese people is not just a militia outburst. It’s not because ordinary people are hungry – and they are – but because an unjust system (ever more taxes, ever higher prices) is making it impossible to work to bring home money and food.
On the fancy corniche seafront too many apartment blocks are empty. These buildings are owned as investments – by Iraqis, for the most part, but also by Syrians and Saudis – and no one lives there.
In a country where the poor of the Beqaa Valley and the refugees from Syria and the Palestinian refugees (of whom of course we no longer speak, since they are the wreckage of the Israeli state) exist in shacks, these mighty sentinels of cash stand triumphant: empty, rich and shameful. 
So, although unusual, the display of discontent is understandable. 
The streets are full of hundreds of thousands of people but the faces we are used to seeing are nowhere to be found. Anyone who has ever lived in Lebanon knows how politicians canvas our daily lives. Their posters and party logos adorn thousands of billboards on the streets; their chest pounding and finger-pointing speeches are all over television. 
From early morning talk shows until the evening news, Lebanon's physical landscape is completely colonised by them, their loyal pundits and the talk show hosts that welcome them with open arms on their programmes, often laughing and smiling. This has been the case for decades, not years. So much so that any average Lebanese can recognise the politicians' voices if the news is on in another room. But over the last week, that situation has changed drastically. 
There are almost no politicians on TV and no news of their daily whereabouts and dramas. Instead, what we see on our screens are the voices of thousands of ordinary citizens, people we have never seen before: men and women, young and old, even children speak to the cameras to get their 30 seconds in the national spotlight. 
Some Lebanese channels have decided to cede directing entirely and instead turn their programming into an open mic with virtually no censorship. For hours on end, reporters for Lebanese TV channels such as LBC, Al Jadeed and MTV stand in place at protests around the country as crowds of people swirl around them, waiting for their chance to air their grievances, sometimes grabbing the microphone.
They tell personal, often anguished stories of not being able to pay for hospital care, school tuition, telephone, electricity and water bills. They are emotional, witty, profane and often humorous, showcasing the legendary sarcasm that Lebanese rely on to cope with a highly dysfunctional state.
The complaints underscore a pillar of the protestors' ire: the wide economic divide in Lebanon, where a majority of the population survives on a few hundred dollars a month, while much of Parliament is composed of millionaires. The past two prime ministers, Hariri and Najib Mikati have been billionaires. Both have amassed a fortune in the telecom industry, while Lebanese pay some of the highest phone bills on earth. The tax on WhatsApp calls, announced by the telecom minister, an heir to family-owned companies worth hundreds of millions of dollars, is what sparked the latest protests.
Pro-government media have tried to retaliate, painting the protesters as violent or misguided. OTV, the mouthpiece of the president's party, is also present in the crowd but its reporters are often aggressive, interrupting and arguing with interviewees. They disguise their affiliation by using a generic microphone that does not feature the channel's logo. 
When a member of parliament affiliated to the president tried to address the crowds on Wednesday, protestors grabbed the microphone and shouted in his face to resign until he was forced off stage. Such scenes were unimaginable a week ago. 
It is not just the president's party. A popular video circulating on social media shows a crowd of hundreds cursing the mothers of each member of parliament after their names are read over a megaphone. Many of their families have been in power for generations. Another video shows a massive crowd chanting: "Christians and Muslims together, f*** the politicians." 
For a foreign journalist not used to Lebanon, this may appear crude and inappropriate. But for anyone who has followed the everyday suffering most of Lebanon's population face, it also feels empowering. Politicians, many of them former warlords, are notorious for flaunting their wealth, speeding around town in black tinted motorcades, armed bodyguards often leaning out of the window, cursing and threatening other cars that cross their path. Their children and cronies can often be seen in the latest Italian sports cars or dining at five star hotels and exclusive nightclubs as many Lebanese occupy rubbish infested ghettos, breathing in open sewers and stomach-churning landfills, dark streets, unclean tap water, choking diesel smog. The toxic environment has sent many to the hospital, but with no healthcare few can even afford treatment. 
Ordinary Lebanese people are fed up and their voices are the only pressure valve. They have always cursed the elite classes privately, but never to their faces. There is a new boldness in Lebanon. It has built up not just over the last few days, but over the last several years of protests and worsening economic conditions.
It is unclear whether this uprising will achieve all or any of its many ambitious demands: a resignation of the entire government, including all the ministers and parliament, early elections, investigations into corruption, public services for all. But it will be impossible to unsay all that has been said, to unsee the determination in the streets, to unknow the public's ability to shut down an entire country, from its biggest cities to its smallest villages.
The revolt has only gone on for a little over a week, but the pain and anger fueling it has been building for months and years. 
Hassan Nasrallah's televised speech on Friday may not calm the protesters, although the leader of Hezbollah is right. A government resignation could create a power vacuum which could lead the country into civil unrest or worse.
However, I fear it is too late to appeal to reason. The protesters are focused on their miseries and misfortunes and do not seem likely to look at the political big picture.

domingo, 4 de novembro de 2012

Valsa petroleira de Netanyahu no Sudão e no Líbano


Como disse há algumas semanas no blog do visível e do invisível, notícias divulgadas sem análise ou a partir de comunicados de imprensa partidários, tendem quase sempre a julgamento errado. E este, infelizmente, é raramente corrigido com a mesma ênfase e o mesmo impacto.
Hoje tenho três casos que poderiam servir de base.
O primeiro é na África.
Em blog anterior http://mariangelaberquo.blogspot.fr/2012/01/vox-populi-vox-dei.html, enquanto outros celebravam a liberdade dos sudaneses do Sul, eu levantava conjeturas sobre a velocidade em que Tel Aviv abordara Salva Kiir na capital do novo Estado.
Pois sabia-se que os Estados Unidos e Israel tinham sido os artífices maquiavélicos da divisão e, logo que a República do Sudão do Sul foi efetivada, na mesma rapidez em que a ONU a reconheceu, Binyamin Netanyahu "abraçou" o presidente "eleito" com USdólares em uma oferta suspeita "caridosa".
Salva Kiir foi logo pagar a dívida do Estado que lhe fora presenteado. Correu a Tel Aviv para estreitar os laços entre os dois países e lá foi recebido com honras de estadista de mãos limpas - como Binyamin Betanyahu foi recebido na França por um François Hollande simpatizante sionista - e voltou para casa convencido do papel que seu país "tinha de representar" na região em favor de Israel e dos Estados Unidos.
Embora o papel não fosse explícito, estava implícito que o Sudão do Sul - que nasceu com doenças corrupto- geopolítico-religiosas crônicas, e paralítico - seria o braço armado do compadre sionista. E este, em contrapartida, forneceria ao país recém-nascido potência bélica ilimitada contra o vizinho do Norte. Cuja ameaça era real, mas a se a ONU tivesse alguma potência própria e autoridade, teria resolvido a médio prazo sem guerra. Se não, para que serve?
Os meses passaram, Tel Aviv e Juba estreitaram ainda mais os laços, bases foram sendo criadas,mais tudo o que implica em uma relação de forças desiguais.
Enquanto isso, em Khartun, o presidente Omar al-Bashir (que também não é flor que se cheire nem de longe) foi ficando apreensivo e acabou tomando disposições que julgava necessárias. Foi bater à porta do inimigo que Israel queria combater por intermédio do vizinho de baixo. Ou seja, o Irã.
Pois o que se escondia atrás da caridade israelense era o combate, por vias africanas, do bicho-papão de Teerã.
Como se os próprios problemas dos africanos não bastassem, além dos conflitos intra e inter-nacionais que têm de administrar, a potência bélica do Oriente Médio incluiu mais este na agenda dsses primos inimigos.
Posso estar enganada, mas nem os sudaneses do norte nem do sul querem se meter na briga de Israel com o Irã e nem virar bucha de canhão.
Mas ninguém pediu a opinião das respectivas populações.
Atendendo ao pedido de socorro de Khartun, o presidente do Irã, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, chegou ao Sudão com dois navios de guerra, um contratorpedeiro, um porta-helicóptero, e disposição de ferro.
Para que toda esta parafernália?
Porque poucos dias antes, Israel bombardeara uma fábrica de armamentos nas proximidades da capital sudanesa deixando Bashir muito irritado e preocupado.
Imagens estadunidenses mostravam cerca de 40 contêiners na fábrica bombardeada. Reduzidos a pedaços.
A "justificativa" de Israel para a operação militar em terra alheia, dada por um oficial da IDF, foi que seu serviço de inteligência havia detectado "ameaça iminente" em Yarmuk.
(Como se Tel Aviv gozasse de uma prerrogativa especial nas Nações Unidas de agir em solo alheio como e quando lhe aprouvesse. Como na Palestina.)
Não é que alguém tenha pedido contas a Binyamin Netanyahu ou a Ehud Barak, mas um general da reserva "explicou" que o ataque aéreo da IDF talvez tivesse visado destruir "uma nova categoria de armas" que seriam contrabandeadas para a Faixa de Gaza.
Aí dá para ficar boquiaberto.
Primeiro, "nova categoria de armas" inventada em um país do terceiro mundo... difícil de acreditar que o Sudão possua teconologia superior à de Israel e dos EUA que investem bilhões em segurança em detrimento de bens públicos necessários.
Segundo, de Khartun a Gaza, a rota é longa e complicada. A entrada então, nem se fala! com o bloqueio que não deixa passar nem gêneros de primeira necessidade.
Mas desculpas não faltam.
O fato é que com Muammar Ghadaffi aniquilado, essa região toda que ele controlava e cultivava com fundos de investimento, corrupção e punho de aço, ficou à mercê de quem pagar mais e falar mais grosso e alto.
O Hamas e o Hezbollah (o qual a União Europeia não quis rotular de Organização Terrorista, apesar das pressões gringas) parecem ser mesmo é desculpa esfarrapada na contenda de Israel com o Irã e na corrida israelense pela hegemonia na reião e além de lá.
O Hamas está mais preocupado em contrabandear água para os gazauís que arma. Questão de prioridade.
E o Hezbollah, bem, o Hezbollah, está entre a cruz e a espada. Sobreviver e/ou defender Bashar el-Assad.
Mas o que é que tem no Sudão que interessa tanto Israel e os EUA?
O ouro negro que provoca cobiça e guerras nos países fracos.
A "revolução" da Líbia foi fomentada de fora para a derrubada de Gaddaffi e o campo ficar livre para Israel, os EUA e os 1% de abastados que dominam o planeta se esbaldarem com o petróleo e com o campo virgem para aplicarem seu capitalismo selvagem.
A Líbia ficou como se esperava - uma hostil colcha de retalhos tribais sob um guarda-chuva de carteis internacionais que estão tirando dos líbios seu patrimônio natural.
No Sudão do Sul, tem muita coisa para explorar e pouca gente instruída para defender os interesses reais da nação recém-criada.
A geopolítica é complicada.
Sobretudo com uma Organização das Nações Unidas tão fraca.
Se a ONU tivesse voz ativa, interviria no Sudão antes que fosse tarde. E na Síria, implementaria o plano de paz de Kofi Annan, que era o mais sábio http://mariangelaberquo.blogspot.fr/2012/08/o-visivel-e-o-invisivel-no-oriente-medio.
Se Barack Obama tivesse sido derrotado (apesar da ajuda providencial do furacão "Sandy"), com Mitt Romney nas rédeas dos EUA, nem o futuro de Bashar el-Assad, nem dos sírios, nem dos sudaneses, nem de Israel (que o Republicano pensa ajudar dando carta branca à dupla Binyamin Netanyahu & Ehud Barak), nem do mundo, estaria assegurado. Dos estadunidenses então, nem se fala.
Com as leis anti-terroristas aprovadas nos EUA nos últimos dez anos, inclusive por Obama, o país virou o maior perigo do planeta, se cair nas mãos de um presidente inescrupuloso. Veremos isso outro dia.
Concluo esta nota com meu leitmotiv de sempre: guerra nunca resolveu e nunca resolverá nada.
  
O segundo leão invisível está no recente atentado em Beirute, que matou o chefe de segurança libanês Wissam al-Assan e mais duas pessoas.
Os oponentes a Bashar el-Assad logo o culparam pelo atentado.
Eu preferi ficar calada porque não encontrei nenhuma prova que isso fosse verdade.
A experiência me ensinou que 99% dos atentados não reivindicados (e às vezes até os 1% que são, mas por grupos marginais) são fabricados para prejudicar a parte acusada.
Os serviços de inteligência das potências hegemônicas passam mais tempo arquitetando e cometendo delitos para incriminar seus antagonistas do que protegendo seus compatriotas.
No caso do recente atentado do Líbano, embora a hipótese de Bashar el-Assad não poder ser totalmente descartada, é difícil acreditar que com todos os problemas que tem e com a decrepitude do aparelhamento de Estado, o presidente da Síria tivesse cabeça, energia e fundos para levar a cabo um projeto no exterior tão bem arquitetado.
O serviço de inteligência da Síria está tão esfacelado que nem conseguiu localizar e prender seu próprio primeiro-ministro dissidente que ficou por lá tranquilo após sua defecção do regime.
Como então Bashar teria conseguido organizar em sigilo e realizar um atentado que exigiu planejamento minucioso e segurança de informação sem falha?
Assad não ganha nada com a desestabilização do Líbano no contexto atual. Sem contar que está longe de ser o único interessado na desestabilização do sistema de segurança do Líbano - Aliás, o presidente da Síria tem mais a perder do que ganhar.
Outros grupos são igualmente ou mais questionáveis.
Sem querer bater na mesma tecla, a potência regional mais interessada na morte de Wassim al-Hassan é Israel. Pois ele presidia também o departamento libanês responsável pela detecção de espiões israelenses no Líbano.
Conhecendo o modus faciendi do Mossad - serviço secreto israelense- sua participação não pode nem deve ser descartada.
É bem possível que este atentado fatal tenha tido como principal motivo calar Wassin e criar caos e ativar conflitos sectários que dormiam sossegados.
E "por coincidência", o atentado aconteceu perto do escritório falangista.
A Falange libanesa é o partido que fez o trabalho sujo de Israel em Sabra e Shatila em 1982, quando centenas de palestinos foram exterminados em poucas horas enquanto os soldados da IDF montavam guarda do lado de fora dos campos de refugiados, impedindo que os moradores escapassem -
Foi o assassinato de Bashir Gemayel, então recém-eleito presidente do Libano, que foi usado como detonador do horrendo ato vingativo.
Na época, o assassinato de Gemayel foi conveniente e rapidamente posto nas costas da OLP (Organização de Libertação da Palestina) - então sediada em Beirute - e/ou nas de seus aliados.
Mil pretextos foram encontrados - como hoje contra Bashar el-Assad - para incriminar Yasser Arafat e induzir os jovens falangistas a aceitarem a hospitalidade israelense para formá-los para o futuro massacre. Que ficaria nos anais dos atos mais bárbaros do século XX.
Na época, pouquíssimos jornalistas ousaram contradizer a versão oficializada.
Um número menor ainda de analistas ousaram lembrar que pouco antes de ser assassinado, Gemayel não era mais protegido de israel. Já caíra em desgraça. Tel Aviv o apoiara esperando que quando eleito se comportasse como vassalo, o que não foi o caso. E como o primeiro ministro de então, o general Menahem Begin, não era de engolir sapo...
As batalhas armadas, incêndios, pilhagens, mortes e banditismo de um punhado de marginais que sucederam a morte de Wissam al-Hassan, embora tenham sido graves, felizmente não foram da proporção de Sabra e Shatila, é claro.
Mas não deixam de ser lamentáveis.
Desde que exerço o meu ofício jornalístico, ou seja, desde o início da década de 80, o Líbano tem sido palco de tentativas graves e repetidas de impedir sua existência em tanto que Estado pleno, uno e estável.
Desde antes, na verdade.
Mas nos últimos trinta anos o Líbano tem sido sido vítima de Tel Aviv em várias frentes. Invasões, ocupações, bombardeios, interferência em abastecimento de água, e outros projetos perversos que assegurem que a antiga Fenícia só consiga existir como um Estado aleijado.
Quer queira quer não, para ver o invisível no Oriente Médio, tem de olhar, ver e analisar os interesses de Israel em cada acontecimento mediático e em cada ato subreptício que o favorize a curto prazo e que prejudique seus adversários.
Se Tel Aviv levar alguma vantagem, ou achar que leva alguma vantagem imediata em algum desastre, infelizmente, antes de "jogar pedra na Geny", tem de perscrutar o que Israel ganha com o desenlace.
Isto não é paranóia. É fato.
É a geopolítica no que ela tem de mais execrável.
Concluindo, não se há de esquecer que dentro do ato terrorista reprovável, tem uma tragédia humana explícita lamentável. Em Beirute, ela estava presente no funeral que seguiu o crime. No sofrimento dos familiares das vítimas indiretas dos interesses inescrutáveis que os abalaram.
Ninguém merece isso.
 O Terceiro leão invisível de hoje é em resposta a uma pergunta que não param de me fazer por email (falando nisso, desculpem os que ainda não foram respondidos nestas páginas).
Andam querendo saber porquê o lobby israelense nos EUA está enchendo Mitt Romney de dinheiro sendo que Barack Obama sempre fez as vontades de Binyamin Netanyahu na Palestina.
A resposta é em dois atos.
Primeiro ato, embora Obama continue obstaculando o trabalho da ONU para que aja concretamente contra a ocupação da Cisjordânia e o bloqueio da Faixa de Gaza, não é segredo para ninguém que ele não quer ver o primeiro ministro de Israel nem pintado. E sua coalição de extrema-direita arrepia os cabelos de muitos Democratas.
Para completar esta aversão incurável, tanto o presidente quanto seu vice-presidente Joe Biden, são claramente contrários às invasões judias na Cisjordânia e à ocupação militar, apesar de não tomarem nenhuma medida concreta contrária.
No segundo ato, o ouro negro entra em pauta.
Em 2010, prospectores encontraram petróleo na região delimitada no mapa acima.
Sem entrar em detalhes técnicos, a bacia petrolífera descoberta é considerada tão rica quanto a do golfo e pertence geograficamente a Israel, à Palestina, a Ciprus e ao Líbano.
Entretanto, Israel logo batizou a bacia de Leviathan, o monstro marinho evocado no Antigo Testamento, e apossou-se dela em toda a sua extensão, como é de seu feitio.
O Líbano recorreu à ONU, com provas cabais de propriedade de parte da área traçada, mas Israel não abriu mão da piratagem marítima.
Avigdor Lieberman, seu ministro do exterior fascista, disse com seu sarcasmo habitual We won't 'give' an inch.  
Em 1982, a ONU estabeleceu uma convenção que legifera sobre os oceanos e os mares do planeta Terra, justamente para resolver questões litigiosas que possam gerar conflitos inúteis.   
Porém, Israel, como os Estados Unidos, nunca ratificou o Tratado e por isso se dá ao direito de infringir mais uma lei internacional como se a ONU e os Tribunais Internacionais fossem só para os demais, quando não legifera em seu benefício.
Só que dessa vez ele estava mexendo com gente tão forte quanto ele.
Tem libanês rico demais espalhado pelo planeta e com influência em Washington... e no final das contas, Barack Obama tomou o partido do Líbano contra Israel, nesta questão petroleira.
Daí a aversão súbita do governo israelense de extrema-direita ao atual presidente dos Estados Unidos e seu interesse exclusivo na eleição do candidato republicano. Mitt Romney prometeu a Israel apoiar tudo o que quisesse (quiser?) fazer no mundo. 
De prosseguir sua limpeza étnica na Palestina, a bombardear o Irã, a roubar o petróleo do Líbano, a sabe-se lá até onde vai a sede de poder e de expansão desses sionistas vorazes.
Se o governo israelense atual pensasse a médio e longo prazo, aproveitaria esta oportunidade providencial para compartilhar o petróleo com os vizinhos que têm direito ao ouro negro. Assim daria um primeiro passo para a colaboração inter-nacional em vez de atolar seus compatriotas em um conflito perpétuo com os países que os cercam e que só querem viver livres, bem e em paz.
  
Lembrando Sabra e Shatila: 30 anos
Al Jazeera: Sabra & Shatila massacre of Palestinians - 
Eyewitness Robert Fisk & Odd Karsten Tveit 
Trailer do filme israelense, de Ariel Folman: Waltz with Bashir
O filme de Folman relata a ocupação do Líbano e o massacre de Sabra e Shatila com uma perspectiva própria, pragmática. Não é preciso com a História. Como por exemplo, o massacre não durou apenas uma noite. Começou ao anoitecer do dia 16 de setembro e só terminou ao amanhecer do dia 18.
A psicóloga israelense Ronit Shpiner, analisou o filme da seguinte maneira.
"The Israeli soldiers are shown as being good, as being people who are tormented by what is going on. Ultimately, the moral responsibility is taken off of them even though those who saw the slaughter should have stopped it. The movie depicts the soldiers as the victims of the massacre because they were traumatised by it."
Concluindo, embora o Serviço Militar em Israel seja obrigatório, há muitos objetores de consciência. Muitos jovens se recusam a fazer o trabalho sujo da IDF nos territórios ocupados e fora.   A vítima real não é o opressor, que tem escolha, e sim o oprimido, que é presa fácil da engrenagem militar de quem o invade.    Ariel Sharon era o chefe da IDF na época e co-responsável pelo massacre, embora no filme o general só seja mostrado de passagem.            Tenho reservas quanto ao conteúdo, mas acho o filme de Ariel Folman forte e de boa qualidade. E é inegável que, à sua maneira, tentou "Break the silence" para redimir-se de atos obscuros que não consegue exorcizar nem nesta obra de arte.
Global BdS Movement: http://www.bdsmovement.net/