People who are
tired of being mislead by mainstream corporate media keep asking me for a
timeline of facts that generated this regrettable war in Ukraine.
I have already given them over and over again.
So, let’s read the undoubtedly impartial voice of a retired Swiss Military_Intelligence officer:
[...] Just
recently I came across perhaps the clearest and most reasonable account of what has
been going on in Ukraine. Its importance comes due to the fact that its author,
Jacques Baud, a retired colonel in the Swiss intelligence service, was
variously a highly placed, major participant in NATO training operations in
Ukraine. Over the years, he also had extensive dealings with his Russian
counterparts. His long essay first appeared (in French) at the respected Centre Français de Recherche sur le
Renseignement. A literal translation appeared at The
Postil (April 1, 2022). I have gone back to the original French and
edited the article down some and rendered it, I hope, in more idiomatic
English. I do not think in editing
it I have damaged Baud's fascinating account. For in a real sense, what he has
done is "to let the cat out of the bag." — Boyd D. Cathay
The Military
Situation In The Ukraine
by Jacques Baud, March2022
Part One: The
Road To War
For years, from Mali to Afghanistan, I have
worked for peace and risked my life for it. It is therefore
not a question of justifying war, but of understanding what led us to it.
Let's try to
examine the roots of the Ukrainian conflict. It starts with those who for the
last eight years have been talking about "separatists" or
"independentists" from Donbass. This is a misnomer. The referendums
conducted by the two self-proclaimed Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in May
2014, were not referendums of "independence"
(независимость), as some unscrupulous journalists have
claimed, but referendums of
"self-determination" or "autonomy" (самостоятельность).
The qualifier "pro-Russian" suggests that Russia was a party to the
conflict, which was not the case, and the
term "Russian speakers" would have been more honest. Moreover, these
referendums were conducted against the advice of Vladimir Putin.
In fact, these
Republics were not seeking to separate from Ukraine, but to have a status of
autonomy, guaranteeing them the use of the Russian language as an
official language — because the first legislative act of the new government
resulting from the American-sponsored overthrow of [the democratically-elected]
President Yanukovych, was the abolition, on February 23, 2014, of the
Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law of 2012 that made Russian an official language in
Ukraine. A bit like if German putschists decided that French and Italian would
no longer be official languages in Switzerland.
This decision
caused a storm in the Russian-speaking population. The result was fierce
repression against the Russian-speaking regions (Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk,
Kharkov, Lugansk and Donetsk) which was carried out beginning in February 2014
and led to a militarization of the situation and some horrific massacres of the
Russian population (in Odessa and Mariupol, the most notable).
At this stage,
too rigid and engrossed in a doctrinaire approach to operations, the Ukrainian
general staff subdued the enemy but without managing to actually prevail. The
war waged by the autonomists consisted in highly mobile operations conducted
with light means. With a more flexible and less doctrinaire approach, the
rebels were able to exploit the inertia of Ukrainian forces to repeatedly
"trap" them.
n 2014, NATO
tried to , I was responsible for the fight against the proliferation of small
arms, and we were trying to detect Russian arms deliveries to the rebels, to
see if Moscow was involved. The information we received then came almost
entirely from Polish intelligence services and did not "fit" with the
information coming from the OSCE [Organization for Security and Co-operation in
Europe] — and despite rather crude allegations, there were no
deliveries of weapons and military equipment from Russia.
The rebels were
armed thanks to the defection of Russian-speaking Ukrainian units that
went over to the rebel side. As Ukrainian failures continued, tank, artillery
and anti-aircraft battalions swelled the ranks of the autonomists. This is what
pushed the Ukrainians to commit to the Minsk Agreements.
Comment: That is astonishing. Even we
assumed they were getting at least some Russian weapons. After all,
Western media harped on about 'the Russian invasion of Ukraine' from Day One of
Kiev's 'anti-terror operation' in the Donbass. It just goes to show that, if
you really want freedom, you've got to really fight for it, and on your own for
the most part...
But just after
signing the Minsk 1 Agreements, the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko
launched a massive "anti-terrorist operation" (ATO/Антитерористична
операція) against the Donbass. Poorly advised by NATO officers, the Ukrainians
suffered a crushing defeat in Debaltsevo, which forced them to engage in the
Minsk 2 Agreements.
It is essential
to recall here that Minsk 1 (September 2014) and Minsk 2 (February 2015)
Agreements did not provide for the separation or independence
of the Republics, but their autonomy within the framework of Ukraine. Those
who have read the Agreements (there are
very few who actually have) will note that it is written that the
status of the Republics was to be negotiated between Kiev and the
representatives of the Republics, for an internal solution within Ukraine.
That is why,
since 2014, Russia has systematically demanded the implementation of the Minsk
Agreements while refusing to be a party to the negotiations, because it
was an internal matter of Ukraine. On the other
side, the West — led by France — systematically tried to replace Minsk
Agreements with the "Normandy format," which put Russians and
Ukrainians face-to-face. However, let us remember
that there were never any Russian troops in the Donbass before 23-24 February
2022. Moreover, OSCE observers have never observed
the slightest trace of Russian units operating in the Donbass before then. For example,
the U.S. intelligence map published by the Washington Post on December
3, 2021 does not show Russian troops in the Donbass.
In October 2015,
Vasyl Hrytsak, director of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), confessed that only
56 Russian fighters had been observed in the Donbass. This was exactly
comparable to the Swiss who went to fight in Bosnia on weekends, in the 1990s,
or the French who go to fight in Ukraine today.
The Ukrainian
army was then in a deplorable state. In October 2018, after four years of war,
the chief Ukrainian military prosecutor, Anatoly Matios, stated that Ukraine had
lost 2,700 men in the Donbass: 891 from illnesses, 318 from road accidents, 177
from other accidents, 175 from poisonings (alcohol, drugs), 172 from careless
handling of weapons, 101 from breaches of security regulations, 228 from
murders and 615 from suicides.
In fact, the
Ukrainian army was undermined by the corruption of its cadres and no
longer enjoyed the support of the population. According to a British
Home Office report, in the
March/April 2014 recall of reservists, 70 percent did not show up for the first
session, 80 percent for the second, 90 percent for the third, and 95 percent
for the fourth. In October/November 2017, 70% of conscripts did not
show up for the "Fall 2017" recall campaign. This is not
counting suicides and desertions (often over to the
autonomists), which reached up to 30 percent of the workforce in the ATO
area. Young Ukrainians refused to go and fight in the Donbass and
preferred emigration, which also explains, at least partially, the demographic
deficit of the country.
The Ukrainian
Ministry of Defense then turned to NATO to help make its armed forces more
"attractive." Having already worked on similar projects within the
framework of the United Nations, I was asked by NATO to participate in a
program to restore the image of the Ukrainian armed forces. But this is a
long-term process and the Ukrainians wanted to move quickly.
So, to compensate
for the lack of soldiers, the Ukrainian government resorted to
paramilitary militias. In 2020, they constituted about 40 percent
of the Ukrainian forces and numbered about 102,000 men, according to
Reuters. They were armed, financed and trained by the United States, Great
Britain, Canada and France. There were more than 19
nationalities.
These militias had been operating in the Donbass
since 2014, with Western support. Even if one can argue about the term
"Nazi," the fact remains that these militias are violent,
convey a nauseating ideology and are virulently anti-Semitic...[and] are
composed of fanatical and brutal individuals. The best known of these is the
Azov Regiment, whose emblem is reminiscent of the 2nd SS Das Reich Panzer
Division, which is revered in the Ukraine for liberating Kharkov from the
Soviets in 1943, before carrying out the 1944 Oradour-sur-Glane massacre in
France.
The
characterization of the Ukrainian paramilitaries as "Nazis" or
"neo-Nazis" is considered Russian
propaganda. But that's not the view of the Times of Israel, or the West Point Academy's Center for
Counterterrorism. In 2014, Newsweek magazine seemed to associate
them more with... the Islamic State. Take your pick!
So, the West
supported and continued to arm militias that have been guilty of numerous crimes against
civilian populations since 2014: rape, torture and massacres...
The integration
of these paramilitary forces into the Ukrainian National Guard was not at all
accompanied by a "denazification," as some claim.
Among the many
examples, that of the Azov Regiment's insignia is instructive:
In 2022, very
schematically, the Ukrainian armed forces fighting the Russian offensive were
organized as:
. The Army,
subordinated to the Ministry of Defense. It is organized into 3 army corps and
composed of maneuver formations (tanks, heavy artillery, missiles, etc.).
. The National Guard, which depends on the Ministry
of the Interior and is organized into 5 territorial commands.
The National Guard is
therefore a territorial defense force that
is not part of the Ukrainian army. It
includes paramilitary militias, called "volunteer battalions"
(добровольчі батальйоні), also known by the evocative name of "reprisal
battalions," and composed of infantry. Primarily trained for urban combat,
they now defend cities such as Kharkov, Mariupol, Odessa, Kiev, etc.
Part Two: The War
As a former head of
analysis of Warsaw Pact forces in the Swiss strategic intelligence service, I
observe with sadness — but not astonishment — that our services are no longer
able to understand the military situation in Ukraine. The self-proclaimed
"experts" who parade on our TV screens tirelessly relay the same
information modulated by the claim that Russia — and Vladimir Putin — is
irrational. Let's take a step back.
1.
The Outbreak Of War
Since
November 2021, the Americans have been constantly threatening a Russian
invasion of Ukraine. However, the Ukrainians at first did not seem to agree.
Why not?
We
have to go back to March 24, 2021. On that day, Volodymyr
Zelensky issued a decree for the recapture of the Crimea, and began to deploy
his forces to the south of the country. At the same time, several NATO
exercises were conducted between the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, accompanied
by a significant increase in reconnaissance flights along
the Russian border. Russia then conducted several exercises to test the
operational readiness of its troops and to show that it was following the
evolution of the situation.
Things
calmed down until October-November with the end of the ZAPAD 21 exercises,
whose troop movements were interpreted as a reinforcement for an offensive
against Ukraine. However, even the Ukrainian authorities refuted the idea of
Russian preparations for a war, and Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukrainian Minister of
Defense, states that there had been no change on its border since the spring.
In
violation of the Minsk Agreements, Ukraine
was conducting air operations in Donbass using drones, including at least one strike against a fuel depot in Donetsk in
October 2021. The American press noted this, but not the Europeans; and no
one condemned these violations.
In
February 2022, events came to a head. On February 7, during his visit to
Moscow, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed to Vladimir Putin his commitment
to the Minsk Agreements, a commitment he would repeat after his meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky the next day.
But on February 11, in Berlin, after nine hours of work, the meeting of
political advisors to the leaders of the "Normandy format" ended
without any concrete result: the Ukrainians still refused to apply the Minsk
Agreements, apparently under pressure from the United States. Vladimir
Putin noted that Macron had made empty promises and that the West was
not ready to enforce the agreements, the same opposition to a settlement it had
exhibited for eight years.
Ukrainian
preparations in the contact zone continued. The Russian Parliament became
alarmed; and on February 15 it asked Vladimir Putin to recognize the
independence of the Republics, which he initially refused to do.
On
17 February, President Joe Biden announced that Russia would attack Ukraine
in the next few days. How did he know this? It is a mystery. But since the 16th, the artillery
shelling of the population of Donbass had increased dramatically, as the daily
reports of the OSCE observers show. Naturally, neither the media, nor the European Union,
nor NATO, nor any Western government reacted or intervened. It would be said
later that this was Russian disinformation. In fact, it seems that the
European Union and some countries have deliberately kept silent about the
massacre of the Donbass population, knowing that this would provoke a Russian intervention.
At
the same time, there were reports of sabotage in the Donbass. On 18 January,
Donbass fighters intercepted saboteurs, who spoke Polish and were equipped with
Western equipment and who were seeking to create chemical incidents in Gorlivka. They could have been CIA mercenaries, led or "advised" by
Americans and composed of Ukrainian or European fighters, to carry out sabotage
actions in the Donbass Republics.
In
fact, as early as February 16, Joe Biden knew that the Ukrainians had begun
intense shelling the civilian population of Donbass, forcing Vladimir Putin to
make a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and create an international
problem, or to stand by and watch the Russian-speaking people of Donbass being
crushed.
If
he decided to intervene, Putin could invoke the international obligation of
"Responsibility To Protect" (R2P). But he knew that whatever
its nature or scale, the intervention would trigger a storm of sanctions. Therefore, whether
Russian intervention were limited to the Donbass or went further to put
pressure on the West over the status of the Ukraine, the
price to pay would be the same. This is what he explained
in his speech on February 21. On that day, he agreed to the request of the Duma
and recognized the independence of the two Donbass Republics and, at the same
time, he signed friendship and assistance treaties with them.
The
Ukrainian artillery bombardment of the Donbass population continued, and, on 23
February, the two Republics asked for military assistance from Russia. On 24
February, Vladimir Putin invoked Article 51 of the United Nations
Charter, which provides for mutual military assistance in the
framework of a defensive alliance.
In
order to make the Russian intervention seem totally illegal in the eyes of the
public, Western powers deliberately hid the
fact that the war actually started on February 16. The
Ukrainian army was preparing to attack the Donbass as early as 2021, as
some Russian and European intelligence services were well aware.
In
his speech of February 24, Vladimir Putin stated the two objectives of his
operation: "demilitarize" and "denazify" the Ukraine. So,
it was not a question of taking over Ukraine, nor even, presumably, of
occupying it; and certainly not of destroying it.
From
then on, our knowledge of the course of the operation is limited: the
Russians have excellent security for their operations (OPSEC) and the details
of their planning are not known. But fairly quickly, the course of the
operation allows us to understand how the strategic objectives were translated
on the operational level.
Demilitarization:
·
ground destruction of Ukrainian aviation, air defense systems and
reconnaissance assets;
·
neutralization of command and intelligence structures (C3I), as well as the
main logistical routes in the depth of the territory;
·
encirclement of the bulk of the Ukrainian army massed in the southeast of
the country.
Denazification:
·
destruction or neutralization of volunteer battalions operating in the
cities of Odessa, Kharkov, and Mariupol, as well as in various facilities in
the territory.
2. Demilitarization
he Russian offensive was
carried out in a very "classic" manner. Initially — as the Israelis
had done in 1967 — with the destruction on the ground of the air force in the
very first hours. Then, we witnessed a simultaneous progression along several
axes according to the principle of "flowing water": advance
everywhere where resistance was weak and leave the cities (very
demanding in terms of troops) for later. In the north, the Chernobyl
power plant was occupied immediately to prevent acts of sabotage. The images of
Ukrainian and Russian soldiers guarding
the plant together are
of course not shown.
The idea that Russia is
trying to take over Kiev, the capital, to eliminate Zelensky, comes typically
from the West. But Vladimir Putin never intended to shoot or topple Zelensky.
Instead, Russia seeks to keep him in power by pushing him to negotiate, by
surrounding Kiev. The Russians want to obtain the neutrality of Ukraine.
Many Western commentators
were surprised that the Russians continued to seek a negotiated solution while
conducting military operations. The explanation lies in the Russian strategic
outlook since the Soviet era. For the West, war begins when politics ends.
However, the Russian approach follows a Clausewitzian inspiration: war is the
continuity of politics and one can move fluidly from one to the other, even
during combat. This allows one to create pressure on the adversary and push him
to negotiate.
From an operational point
of view, the Russian offensive was an example of previous military action and
planning: in six days, the Russians seized a territory as large as the
United Kingdom, with a speed of advance greater than what the Wehrmacht had
achieved in 1940.
The bulk of the Ukrainian
army was deployed in the south of the country in preparation for a major
operation against the Donbass. This is why Russian forces were able to encircle
it from the beginning of March in the "cauldron" between Slavyansk,
Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk, with a thrust from the East through Kharkov and
another from the South from Crimea. Troops from the Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk
(LPR) Republics are complementing the Russian forces with a push from the East.
Comment: Progressing as we speak. The blue area in east Ukraine are
the trapped UA forces.
© Readovka
Military
situation Ukraine, April 4, 2022
At this stage, Russian forces are slowly
tightening the noose, but are no longer under any time pressure or
schedule. Their demilitarization goal is all but achieved and the
remaining Ukrainian forces no longer have an operational and strategic command
structure.
The "slowdown"
that our "experts" attribute to poor logistics is only the
consequence of having achieved their objectives.
Russia does not want to engage in an occupation of the entire Ukrainian
territory. In fact, it appears that Russia is trying to limit its
advance to the linguistic border of the country.
Our media speak of
indiscriminate bombardments against the civilian population, especially in
Kharkov, and horrific images are widely broadcast. However, Gonzalo Lira, a
Latin American correspondent who lives there, presents us with a calm city
on March 10 and March 11. It is true that it is a large city and
we do not see everything — but this seems to indicate that we are not in the
total war that we are served continuously on our TV screens. As for the Donbass
Republics, they have "liberated" their own territories and are
fighting in the city of Mariupol.
3. Denazification
In cities like Kharkov,
Mariupol and Odessa, the Ukrainian defense is provided by the paramilitary
militias. They know that the objective of
"denazification" is aimed primarily at them. For
an attacker in an urbanized area, civilians are a problem. This is why Russia
is seeking to create humanitarian corridors to empty cities of civilians and
leave only the militias, to fight them more easily.
Conversely, these
militias seek to keep civilians in the cities from evacuating in order to
dissuade the Russian army from fighting there. This is why they are
reluctant to implement these corridors and do everything to ensure that Russian
efforts are unsuccessful — they use the civilian population as "human
shields." Videos showing civilians trying to leave Mariupol and
beaten up by fighters of the Azov regiment are of course carefully censored by
the Western media.
On Facebook, the Azov group
was considered in the same category as the Islamic State [ISIS] and subject to
the platform's "policy on dangerous individuals and organizations."
It was therefore forbidden to glorify its activities, and "posts"
that were favorable to it were systematically banned. But on February 24,
Facebook changed its policy and allowed posts favorable to the militia. In the
same spirit, in March, the platform authorized, in the former Eastern
countries, calls for the murder of Russian soldiers and leaders. So
much for the values that inspire our leaders.
Our media propagate a
romantic image of popular resistance by the Ukrainian people. It is this image
that led the European Union to finance the distribution of arms to the civilian
population. In my capacity as head of peacekeeping at the UN, I worked
on the issue of civilian protection. We found that violence against civilians
occurred in very specific contexts. In particular, when weapons are abundant
and there are no command structures.
These command structures
are the essence of armies: their function is to channel the use of force
towards an objective. By arming citizens in a haphazard manner, as is
currently the case, the EU is turning
them into combatants, with the consequential effect of making them potential
targets. Moreover, without command, without
operational goals, the distribution of arms leads inevitably to settling of
scores, banditry and actions that are more deadly than effective. War becomes a
matter of emotions. Force becomes violence. This is what happened in
Tawarga (Libya) from 11 to 13 August 2011, where 30,000 black Africans were
massacred with weapons parachuted (illegally) by France. By the way, the
British Royal Institute for Strategic Studies (RUSI) does not see any added value in these arms deliveries.
Moreover,
by delivering arms to a country at war, one exposes oneself to being considered
a belligerent. The Russian strikes of March 13, 2022, against the Mykolayev air
base follow Russian
warnings that arms
shipments would be treated as hostile targets.
The EU is repeating the
disastrous experience of the Third Reich in the final hours of the Battle of
Berlin. War must be left to the military and when
one side has lost, it must be admitted. And if there is to be
resistance, it must be led and structured. But we are doing exactly the
opposite — we are pushing citizens to go and fight, and at the same time,
Facebook authorizes calls for the murder of Russian soldiers and leaders.
So much for the values that inspire us.
Some intelligence services
see this irresponsible decision as a
way to use the Ukrainian population as cannon fodder to fight Vladimir Putin's
Russia. It would have been better to engage in
negotiations and thus obtain guarantees for the civilian population than to add
fuel to the fire. It is easy to be combative with the blood of others.
4. The Maternity Hospital
At Mariupol
It is important to
understand beforehand that it is not the Ukrainian army that is
defending Mariupol, but the Azov militia, composed of foreign mercenaries.
In its March 7, 2022
summary of the situation, the Russian UN mission in New York stated that "Residents
report that Ukrainian armed forces expelled staff from the Mariupol city birth
hospital No. 1 and set up a firing post inside the facility." On March 8,
the independent Russian media Lenta.ru, published the testimony of civilians from Mariupol who told that the
maternity hospital was taken over by the militia of the Azov regiment, and
who drove out the civilian occupants by threatening them with their weapons.
They confirmed the statements of the Russian ambassador a few hours earlier.
The hospital in Mariupol
occupies a dominant position, perfectly suited for the installation of
anti-tank weapons and for observation. On 9 March, Russian forces struck the
building. According to CNN, 17 people were wounded, but the images do not show any
casualties in the building and there is no evidence that the victims mentioned
are related to this strike. There is talk of children, but in reality,
there is nothing. This does not prevent the leaders of the EU from
seeing this as a war crime. And
this allows Zelensky to call for a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
In
reality, we do not know exactly what happened. But the sequence of events tends
to confirm that Russian forces struck a position of the Azov regiment and
that the maternity ward was then free of civilians.
The problem is that the
paramilitary militias that defend the cities are encouraged by the
international community not to respect the rules of war. It seems that the
Ukrainians have replayed the scenario of the Kuwait City maternity hospital in 1990, which
was totally staged by the firm Hill & Knowlton for $10.7 million in order
to convince the United Nations Security Council to intervene in Iraq for
Operation Desert Shield/Storm.
Western politicians have
accepted civilian strikes in the Donbass for eight years without adopting any
sanctions against the Ukrainian government. We have long since entered a
dynamic where Western politicians have agreed to sacrifice international law
towards their goal of weakening Russia.
Part Three: Conclusions
As an ex-intelligence
professional, the first thing that strikes me is the total absence of Western
intelligence services in accurately representing the situation over the past
year. In fact, it seems that throughout the Western world intelligence services
have been overwhelmed by the politicians. The problem is that it is the
politicians who decide — the best intelligence service in the world is
useless if the decision-maker does not listen. This is what has happened during
this crisis.
That said, while a few
intelligence services had a very accurate and rational picture of the
situation, others clearly had the same picture as that propagated by our media.
The problem is that, from experience, I have found them to be extremely bad at
the analytical level — doctrinaire, they lack the intellectual and political
independence necessary to assess a situation with military "quality."
Second, it seems that in
some European countries, politicians have deliberately responded ideologically
to the situation. That is why this crisis has been irrational from the
beginning. It should be noted that all the documents that were presented to the
public during this crisis were presented by politicians based on commercial
sources.
Comment: The intelligence services have been subject to a process
of 'negative selection', whereby ideology becomes valued over objectivity, and
pathological types, once they reach a certain threshold within state organs,
then select for others of like mind to be placed in positions of power
throughout the body politic. Democracy thus becomes pathocracy and it begins to
self-destruct.
Some
Western politicians obviously wanted there to be a conflict.
In the United States, the attack scenarios presented by Anthony Blinken to the
UN Security Council were only the product of the imagination of a Tiger
Team working for him — he did
exactly as Donald Rumsfeld did in 2002, who "bypassed" the CIA and
other intelligence services that were much less assertive about Iraqi chemical
weapons.
The dramatic developments
we are witnessing today have causes that we knew about but refused to see:
- on the strategic level, the expansion of NATO
(which we have not dealt with here);
- on the political level, the Western refusal to
implement the Minsk Agreements;
- and operationally, the continuous and repeated
attacks on the civilian population of the Donbass over the past years and
the dramatic increase in late February 2022.
In other words,
we can naturally deplore and condemn the Russian attack. But WE (that is:
the United States, France and the European Union in the lead) have created the
conditions for a conflict to break out. We show
compassion for the Ukrainian people and the two million refugees. That is
fine. But if we had had a modicum of compassion for the same number
of refugees from the
Ukrainian populations of Donbass massacred by their own government and who
sought refuge in Russia for eight years, none of this would probably have
happened.
Whether the term
"genocide" applies to the abuses suffered by the people of Donbass is
an open question. The term is generally reserved for cases of greater magnitude
(Holocaust, etc.). But the definition given by the Genocide Convention is probably
broad enough to apply to this case.
Clearly, this
conflict has led us into hysteria. Sanctions seem to have become the preferred
tool of our foreign policies. If we had insisted that Ukraine abide by
the Minsk Agreements, which we had negotiated and endorsed, none of this would
have happened. Vladimir Putin's condemnation is also ours. There is no
point in whining afterwards — we should have acted earlier. However,
neither Emmanuel Macron (as guarantor and member of the UN Security Council),
nor Olaf Scholz, nor Volodymyr Zelensky have respected their commitments. In
the end, the real defeat is that of those who have no voice.
The European
Union was unable to promote the implementation of the Minsk agreements — on the
contrary, it did not react when Ukraine was bombing its own population in the
Donbass. Had it done so, Vladimir Putin would not have needed to react. Absent
from the diplomatic phase, the EU distinguished itself by fueling the
conflict. On February 27, the Ukrainian government agreed to enter
into negotiations with Russia. But a few hours later, the European Union
voted a
budget of 450 million euros to supply arms to the
Ukraine, adding fuel to the fire. From then on, the
Ukrainians felt that they did not need to reach an agreement. The
resistance of the Azov militia in Mariupol even led to a boost of 500 million euros for
weapons.
In Ukraine, with
the blessing of the Western countries, those who are in
favor of a negotiation have been eliminated. This is
the case of Denis Kireyev, one of the Ukrainian negotiators, assassinated on March 5
by the Ukrainian secret service (SBU) because he was too favorable to Russia
and was considered a traitor. The same fate befell Dmitry Demyanenko, former
deputy head of the SBU's main directorate for Kiev and its region, who was
assassinated on March 10 because he was too favorable to an agreement with
Russia — he was shot by the Mirotvorets ("Peacemaker") militia.
This militia is associated with the Mirotvorets website, which lists the
"enemies of Ukraine," with their personal data, addresses and
telephone numbers, so that they can be harassed or even eliminated; a practice
that is punishable in many countries, but not in the Ukraine. The UN and some
European countries have demanded the closure of this site — but that demand was
refused by the Rada [Ukrainian parliament].
In the end, the
price will be high, but Vladimir Putin will likely achieve the goals he set for
himself. We have pushed him into
the arms of China. His ties with Beijing have solidified. China is emerging as
a mediator in the conflict. The Americans have to ask Venezuela and Iran for
oil to get out of the energy impasse they have put themselves in — and the
United States has to piteously backtrack on the sanctions imposed on its
enemies.
Western ministers who seek to collapse the Russian economy and make the Russian people
suffer, or even
call for the assassination of Putin, show (even if they have
partially reversed the form of their words, but not the substance!) that our
leaders are no better than those we hate — sanctioning Russian athletes
in the Para-Olympic Games or Russian artists has nothing to do with fighting
Putin.
What makes the conflict in Ukraine more blameworthy than our wars in Iraq, Afghanistan or Libya? What sanctions have we adopted against those who deliberately lied to the international community in order to wage unjust, unjustified and murderous wars? Have we adopted a single sanction against the countries, companies or politicians who are supplying weapons to the conflict in Yemen, considered to be the "worst humanitarian disaster in the world?"
https://www.unz.com/article/is-it-possible-to-actually-know-what-has-been-and-is-going-on-in-ukraine/
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