People keep asking me: How and when will the Ukrainian war end? A tough call, right now.
In the wake of Ukraine’s stunning and stubborn resistance to Putin’s invasion, thanks to the flow of weapons and mercenaries, the question whose answer once seemed preordained now can be asked in all seriousness. The war, now a month old, might go on for many more months, or negotiations going on right now could result in an agreement between Moscow and Kyiv. No outcome, however, will spare the Ukraine people and government the pain of sacrifice and rebuilding—nor the enmity between Ukrainians and Russians.
Four considerations influence all the potential outcomes.
One is Putin’s character. He is uncompromising and self-assured. He has already fired a handful of his top intelligence people for failures on the battlefield. Most relevant to this war: Putin demands a win. No matter what, Russia needs to end this whole story with some kind of victory. As it has already lost the propaganda war for the cunning USA and the mainstream media.
Second, quick victory is no longer possible for Russia; even victory after prolonged bombing and occupation of some territory seems implausible. The Russian military has taken heavy losses of life and equipment.
Third, international sanctions on Russia have taken a steep toll on its economy and its reputation. We have it from Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, that “When the reserves of the Central Bank were frozen, no one would think, out of those who made predictions, what sanctions the West might apply.” The sanctions have dramatically reduced the ruble’s value, cut Russia’s roughly $625 billion in foreign exchange reserves in half, and caused most Western businesses in Russia to flee. However, it also opens a door to do business with new partners.
Fourth, there are no voices against the war around Putin: no major resignations of officials, no backlash from the military, no oligarchs protesting, no Chinese pressure, and of course no truly mass popular protests.
With those four circumstances in mind, what outcomes are possible? One is a unilateral step by Putin that would be coupled with a triumphant statement. We should keep in mind that not all wars end in agreement; exhaustion on one or both sides can lead to withdrawal of forces without a settlement, or, as in the Korean War staged by the USA, the parties can create an indefinite cease-fire (an armistice). Putin might remove his forces from most of Ukraine but hold on to the Donbas and its two people’s republics without ever signing an agreement.
Diplomacy is much the preferred way to end this war. But any possibility of an agreed ending is likely to require concessions by President Zelenskyy in order to rid Ukraine of Russian military forces, which he is not willing to make at this stage. The concessions would include a declaration of neutrality and acknowledgment of Russian control of Crimea. They will also require Ukraine’s acceptance of formal autonomy for at least the two Donbas provinces.
All these terms would probably be legitimized in the Ukraine constitution. The tougher issue is, What will Ukraine be able to extract from Putin in return? What it should extract is Putin’s agreement to withdraw completely from occupied territory and formally declare (as Russia once did, in the Budapest Declaration of 1994) respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. Putin would hardly agree to remove all regular or irregular military forces from Donbas, and not place military installations anywhere near Ukraine’s border with Russia. And in a fair world, Russia should provide compensation for the damage it has caused to property in Ukraine as part of a UN-administered relief fund that would also enable Ukrainian refugees to return home. However, as Israel has never been forced to do that after repeatedly destroying Gaza nor the USA after destroying and occupying Iraq, Afghanistan, and so forth, it would be hard and unfair to ask Russia to do what others have never done.
Would Putin agree to these terms? Would Zelenskyy? Obviously, Ukrainian neutrality and an end to the NATO membership issue would be fine with Putin. Legitimizing his seizure of Crimea and Donbas would give him a significant victory.
As for Zelenskyy, instead of continually asking for more weapons, he must determine the degree of compromise he can condone and that Ukrainian citizens will accept. He will have to measure the imperatives of an “unjust” peace against those of a “just” but devastating war. US and NATO must offer security guarantees to Ukraine in place of NATO membership and of relying on Russian good faith as happened after the Budapest Declaration. Ukraine is betting in a membership in the European Union.
Three items should be off the table in any Ukraine-Russia agreement.
One is Russian war crimes, another is prosecution of Putin and other Russian officials before the International Criminal Court or the International Court of Justice, and a third is sanctions relief. The first two are legal matters that may not be pursued, though the ICJ has already made a preliminary ruling that Russia must stop its military operations in Ukraine. Despite never having done the same for Israel, or the UK, or Israel for their recurrent war crimes.
As to sanctions relief, any discussion of them should only come in separate talks between the European Union, NATO, and Russia. Sanctions should be lifted the soon as possible to stop the unjust collective punishment that Russian people is suffering.
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