For the first time the Russia-Ukraine negotiations look as if they might produce a peace deal as a top Russian defence official says that Russia will “dramatically” reduce its military activities around Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv.
This is being done “to create the necessary conditions for future negotiations” according to Alexander Fomin, Russia’s deputy defence minister attending the peace talks in Istanbul.
An agreement looks like a possibility for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Fomin said the withdrawal was taking place because Ukraine has agreed to neutrality and a non-nuclear status.
In recent days, the Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu told top military officials that Russia had largely completed the first stage of its operation and was shifting to “the main goal – the liberation of Donbas.”
The fact that these statements about a peace deal and a Russian pull-back are coming from senior Russian officials make it less likely that they are a propaganda manoeuvre or a delaying tactic, giving time for Russian forces to reorganise themselves after a series of setbacks.
Other Russian officials say that a peace agreement is still far off and it is possible that the Kremlin has decided to fight and negotiate at the the same time.
Whatever the outcome of the peace negotiations in Istanbul, the Russian statements are very different from President Putin’s original demand five weeks ago that the President Volodymyr Zelensky be overthrown and the Ukrainian army lay down its arms.
Since then, the military and international balance of power between Russia and Ukraine has moved sharply – and probably permanently – against the former and in favour of the latter. Putin misjudged the strength of Ukrainian resistance, the power of his own military, and the reaction of Nato.
But although Russia has failed in its strategic objectives and has captured only a couple of Ukrainian urban centres, it still has a powerful military force in Ukraine.
Non-stop pictures of shattered buildings and wrecked bridges met its purpose of horrifying the world, but they mask the grim truth that the level of devastation is still far below the total destruction seen in besieged cities in the Middle East such as East Aleppo, Gaza in Palestine, and the old city of Mosul and Raqqa.
There is no reason why Ukraine should not share the fate of Palestine, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, if the fighting goes on for months or years.
Much of what Russia says that it has gained was obtainable without an invasion. Ukraine was unlikely to join Nato and the Nato powers said that none of their soldiers would fight in Ukraine. Russian demands for ‘de-Nazification’, and an end to the genocide of Russian speakers, will be harder to meet, but Putin could claim to have averted them.
The US has been ambivalent about how to keep out of a direct role in the war, but also to supply enough weapons and other assistance to keep Ukraine fighting.
“Such is the tenuous balance the Biden administration has tried to maintain as it seeks to help Ukraine lock Russia in a quagmire without inciting a broader conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary or cutting off potential paths to de-escalation,” says the New York Times in an analysis of US policy.
Of course, the war is not over yet. Zelensky prefer to see his country destroyed than capitulate. He keeps asking for more weapons and less discussion, despite Russia’s effort to de-escalate around Kyiv.
I must explain that all information you read about Ukrainian victories and Russian defeats come from the Ukrainian side, the position on the battlefield is not as clear cut as presented by the western media.
The Kremlin rightfully feel that it has been outmanoeuvred by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has hypocritically offered compromises, given the false impression of moderation and stressed his wish to end the war, which was never his intention, ever. His proposals are a bitter pill for the Russians to accept because they include security guarantees for Ukraine which would be more effective than membership of Nato.
Ukraine may seem stronger than it was before the war and Russia considerably weaker. However, it is a broken country that will never mend and will be divided sooner or later. Successful peace negotiations will ultimately wrongly reflect a new balance of power between Ukraine and Russia and Russia and the world. But it will be a false idea, as Russia is shaping a new balance of power with the BRICS and its allies. And Ukraine will be stuck with its neo nazis from the Azov militia whose role has been down played by the main stream media.
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